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Post by thecolours on Dec 7, 2008 20:20:24 GMT -5
It's more a "dudes in a bunker" than a combat-heavy future war segment. I knew there was something off about Jesse.
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Post by vicheron on Dec 7, 2008 20:28:54 GMT -5
I think he meant to say dudes and dudettes in a bunker.
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Post by thecolours on Dec 8, 2008 0:28:46 GMT -5
I think he meant to say dudes and dudettes in a bunker.
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Post by richardstevenhack on Dec 8, 2008 4:54:07 GMT -5
First of all, let's point out that if Skynet had control of the US missile systems, and if, as in T-2, Uncle Bob explained that it attacked Russia and China in order to stimulate a counterattack, there are serious problems with all that.
First of all, Skynet could easily have reprogrammed some of those missiles to attack every other nuclear nation on Earth. So that ALL would them would sustain massive damage and ALL of them would have counterattacked to the degree they were able.
And "to the degree they were able" is basically minimal - because 1) this attack would have had utterly no warning, since it came from the US, which means virtually every nation that wasn't on a "launch on warning" posture - which means none of them - would have had all its missile and bomber assets destroyed. and 2) the US has FAR more missiles than ANY other nuclear nation. China simply isn't even in the same league - it has very few missiles - one estimate I just read from the DoD in 2006 basically suggested 105 missile launched nuclear weapons - a problem for the US but still about five times smaller than the US arsenal. Russia, however, has about 2,300 deliverable warheads.
The US only has about 500 nuclear missiles ready to launch. The US has about 1,600 deliverable warheads - but they are more accurate. None of the US subs are carrying nuclear Tomahawk missiles at this time - although of course the US could have ratcheted that up prior to Judgment Day for some reason.
The problem is that people count warheads - which is irrelevant since fifteen minutes after a war starts, most of the warheads go up in nuclear smoke. What matters is what you can deliver first and what kind of second-strike, i.e., sub-based and aircraft based weapons, you can deliver. And most aircraft based weapons would be destroyed as well - and it's unlikely most of them would penetrate their targets anyway. So that leaves your ICBM's and your subs.
And most of Russia's retaliatory capability these days is minimal because their early warning systems was down for most of every day, at least in the '90's. They might be somewhat better off today because the oil revenues have enabled them to refit a bit. But in the '90's, when T-2 was supposed to occur, basically the US could have attacked Russia most of any given day and Russia would have been taken completely by surprise.
It's doubtful China would fair much better.
So Skynet relying on a Russian and Chinese counterattack destroying its enemies over here is really unlikely.
Really, if you review the nuclear war studies, the US and most countries would PHYSICALLY survive a nuclear war ("nuclear winter" for example is massively discounted), albeit most of the domestic and economic infrastructure would be destroyed. The resulting dissolution of social cohesion would be worse than the attack itself, most likely. The US would not "cease to exist". Neither would Russia or China. As functioning governments and functioning economies, perhaps, but not physically. Most people would survive and rebuild within a decade or two.
But that doesn't make a for a good "Apocalypse" movie, so we assume everybody delivers everything they have equally spaced around the world or that at least every major population center is hit. Which is how you get the three billion figure. In a REAL nuclear war, the death toll would likely be under 100 million on both sides from the actual attack, especially since most countries would be targeting military assets and not population centers these days, not like in the "Cold War" days. But of course Skynet would be targeting the reverse so the toll would be higher. Probably still well under a billion.
Which of course would leave Skynet with a problem, i.e., five billion humans.
If Skynet had control of most of the nuclear sub missiles as well - we don't know that, but it's possible - it could have launched them as well at other nations with sufficient infrastructure to threaten it. That at least would remove them as a military threat to Skynet.
If Skynet truly took out "three billion people" - well, the US only has 300 million of that. That means the bulk of Russia, China, India, and probably the entire industrialized world would have been hit - including Australia and South Africa (the latter not so much.)
Skynet no doubt targeted many of the US missiles at the US itself. But Uncle Bob didn't say that, reflecting once again that James Cameron really didn't think a lot of this through. The writers simply had Uncle Bob say that Skynet targeted countries like Russia so that it could take advantage of the counterattack. But he also said, "the Russian counterattack would eliminate its enemies over here."
Well, it wouldn't ELIMINATE them - and clearly didn't since Skynet ended up with John Connor and a Resistance and probably five billion other teed off humans.
More importantly, none of those countries are in a position to do ANYTHING militarily about the US - since as usual we are protected by two oceans - and Skynet's air force which no doubt is far superior in maneuverability than existing human pilots (see the movie "Stealth" for an example). Which is why Australia is reduced to sending supplies and some personnel here. Militarily there's nothing any other country can do to the US or Skynet.
One problem presumably is FINDING Skynet. It's either in a bunker whose location is unknown, or, more likely, it is distributed among quite a few bunkers whose location is unknown so that a hit on any one bunker would not disable it. We don't know how or where Skynet is built or with what tech, so all of that is speculative. Since it wasn't addressed in the movies, except for T-3, which explicitly said that Skynet was EVERYWHERE in the computer systems of the world, we don't know how Skynet could be destroyed.
In fact, I suspect that eventually the only way Skynet can be defeated is if John Connor and his team uses their hacking skills to find a way to screw Skynet up, a la Captain Kirk and his usual "trick the machine into a coma or insanity" technique. Basically the whole military effort Connor is directing would be a waste of time against a distributed AI unless it's really intended to be a brutal war of attrition, counting on the fact that there are more humans than Terminators and that eventually somebody will blow up all the Terminators and all the machines in which Skynet functions.
Not a great strategy. Hopefully someone comes up with something better.
But the bottom line is that the future war has been very, very poorly explained in any sort of realistic terms other than "Judgment Day", which itself is mere religious imagery. But at worst, we have to assume that at least fifty percent of the human race survived, and that somehow Skynet managed to make enough Terminator armies to devastate much of the rest before the Resistance got organized.
Maybe that's where the bio-warfare stuff that some of the future scripts mention comes in. Maybe the TV show writers are trying to think through how Skynet might overcome the problems of the movie's poor explanation of Judgment Day and how Skynet could actually succeed in killing three billion people without something other than US nukes.
Also, let's keep in mind that the producers have hinted that maybe killing off EVERYBODY is not what Skynet intends to do. That would make a lot more sense.
Check out the 1970 movie, "The Forbin Project", where this whole scenario was explored before, in Wikipedia. And guess what? Wikipedia says a remake is in the works since 2007 - presumably destined to compete with guess who?
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traitorsgate
Sergeant
This is Cam. She's trained for an Off-World kick murder squad. Talk about Beauty and the Beast.
Posts: 264
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Post by traitorsgate on Dec 8, 2008 5:49:13 GMT -5
A nation without any sustainable infrastructure and government isn't a nation, as such the United States would for all intentions cease to exist post JD. Certainly a great many people would survive, as to how long it would take to rebuild a shattered nation well that could be debated until the cows come home.
One thing is certain though that in any Nuclear exchange between the United States and Russia the US military would bear the brunt, as of course would the Russian military. Contrary to what is popularly portrayed in Hollywood it's not your cities that would be attacked first but rather it's each countries ability to fight that would be attacked long before the war escalated to deliberately targeting Civilian infrastructure. For instance the United States Navy has always conceded that in any full blown Nuclear war it would likely lose all it's Carrier Strike Groups. A United States with a shattered military would just be a large defenseless country with population that needs feeding. It's usually at about this point that society completely implodes into dog eat dog anarchy. The irony of course regarding the whole JD scenario is that it can be argued that it would in reality be seen as an own Goal on the part of Skynet as it's effectively targeting itself first and foremost in any sort of retaliatory strike.
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Post by psychothumbs on Dec 8, 2008 13:53:07 GMT -5
Another possible tactic skynet could use is selectively target those missiles that it knows are likely to be deployed against the installations it controls, while leaving the rest of the arsenal unscathed, allowing it to more completely devastate the US. It could also use any human manned subs that were outside of its control as a second strike. They may not be willing to launch missiles at the beginning on skynet's orders, but you can bet they'll do it after they get confirmation that some cities are burning.
Also, Skynet could use its forces to cook off other wars. Presumably there would be Skynet forces anywhere there are American military forces, so you could have 'americans' based in western europe attacking the russians, of those based on Japan attacking China, or those in south korea attacking north korea, or those in Saudi Arabia attacking Iran. This would help to destroy the overseas American military, since it would get involved in these battles, and devastate more areas, as Russia deploys it's medium range nukes against Europe, and Britain and France respond with their own arsenals.
Through all this Skynet could destroy a very large proportion of the human population and military capability, while surviving with its own forces mostly intact in a particularly devastated America.
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wb5
Private
Posts: 230
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Post by wb5 on Dec 8, 2008 15:27:08 GMT -5
The Russian nuclear subs armed with ballistic missiles are also very hard to destroy, provided they are out at sea at the time. They can launch their missiles from right outside Murmansk, or from near the north pole, and still comfortably hit the US. There is almost no defense against this kind of subs (having all of them followed closely by an attack submarine is about the only one that could work, unless they're in the harbour or otherwise non-operational). Keeping them from a counterattack would be near impossible.
As an aside; most (all?) Tomahawks nowadays are equipped with conventional warheads, as they have been used against Iraq and Afghanistan quite recently.
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Post by stealthgear on Dec 8, 2008 19:26:38 GMT -5
IF I was skynet;
1. I'd stay in the United States, systematically take over our military power with AI & Infiltrators. 2. Bomb every other nation off the map (because we do have enough fire power to do this) 3. Destroy the Americans in hand to hand land war the next day.
Skynet doesnt have enough resources to spread itself thin around the world on Judgement day. The U.S. has the best weapons manufacturing & highway system to transport stuff like robots on trucks though. Once it does that it can start making HKs in more fascilities that it will control. The entire world will be devasted by (U.S.) nuclear missiles the time the terminators are unleashed like we see in the movies.
BUT that sub thing is a good idea. If skynet had a giant mobile missile platform it could just go around bombing continuously, then disappear. That would be a great episode, kind of like Hunt for Red October! I'd call it Hunt for Metal October.
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Post by vicheron on Dec 8, 2008 19:56:45 GMT -5
In T2, Skynet controls much more than just the missiles. All strategic bombers were equipped with Cyberdyne computers before the creation of Skynet. According to Uncle Bob, all strategic defense was under the control of Skynet.
Also, even though T2 took place in 1994, it was written around 1990 and shooting began in October of 1990. The Soviet Union hadn't completely dissolved yet, the situation was different. There were still more than twice as many active warheads compared to today. Just between 1990 and 1995, the US got rid of like 6,000 warheads and Russia got rid of like 10,000.
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t101
Major
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Post by t101 on Dec 8, 2008 20:06:59 GMT -5
That's exactly what Skynet did. America got wiped out with a counter strike.
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Post by ga5speed02 on Dec 8, 2008 21:09:33 GMT -5
wow. i like the format of this episode. it was well done. i am confused tho. if it wasnt the dad, what did the mom do? as soon as i saw derek outside the camp with the gun, i knew jesse was going to come up to him hahaha. i like when the show the future oh and i think sarah did a good job, but not good enough to get the fam out in time. i also found it strange how the feilds family just happened to accept sarahs story about the future and terminators.
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Post by allergygal on Dec 8, 2008 21:32:51 GMT -5
wow. i like the format of this episode. it was well done. i am confused tho. if it wasnt the dad, what did the mom do? as soon as i saw derek outside the camp with the gun, i knew jesse was going to come up to him hahaha. i like when the show the future oh and i think sarah did a good job, but not good enough to get the fam out in time. i also found it strange how the feilds family just happened to accept sarahs story about the future and terminators. The dad and his financial connection to cybernetic research was a red herring. It was the mom the terminator was after. She was going to have a baby that would be born with an anti-body that the resistance could use to protect themselves against biological attacks from Skynet. So basically, the terminator was sent there to kill the mother to prevent the baby girl from being born. Sort of a T1 story — kill the mother to prevent the baby. -- BTW, anyone else feel really bad for Lauren? I mean she was sooooooooo sad when her mother died. ;D So where are we in Connor time now? I thought we were like late Nov / early Dec 2007, but that "six months earlier" thing threw me. Have we skipped ahead?
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airofina
Refugee
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Tech-Com Resistance Fighter.
Posts: 27
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Post by airofina on Dec 8, 2008 22:08:18 GMT -5
Hmm... interesting episode. It was different but, I liked it. I liked how all the different stories connected in the end. Kind of reminds me of "Mr. Ferguson Is Ill Today"- I enjoy the multiple storyline episodes, as long as they don't get confusing, they are fun to watch. I really enjoyed Sarah in this episode; the way she dealt with the situation was spot on. Especially during the part when everyone was fighting and she fired her the gun to shut everyone up- that made me laugh xDD I felt bad for Cameron in this episode though.. She got busted up pretty bad. When she was thrown through that window, and the way she was just lying there on the floor- ouch. Then again she is a machine.. I just can't help but feel for her. Haha, her line when she hit that guy from behind thinking he was metal- "My mistake." That line made my night. Oh, and the part when Sarah looks out into the forest and the trees are moving, the girl asks her what they are doing and Sarah responds "Their hunting each other." I really liked that line for some odd reason. It just sounded really awesome Derek was brilliant in this episode as well. The part when he first met Jessie was interesting to watch. The future scenes were also awesome; I always love when they show scenes from the future. The whole biological warfare deal was intense, and really scary if you think about it. Reminds me of those horror films.. *shivers* Over all, awesome episode. The only thing missing was John.. I guess, we do see him all the time and him being out for just one episode isn't that big of a deal.. I still missed him. I mean, it just isn't Terminator without John Connor
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Post by aceplace57 on Dec 8, 2008 22:42:07 GMT -5
I enjoyed this one! ;D
I loved the contrast between the bickering, clueless family and Sarah's intense determination to save their worthless butts. The wife chooses that moment to invite over her lover and throw him right into clueless hubby's face. Priceless! ;D
Gosh, I wish they would have played the M*A*S*H theme (Suicide is Painless) when Derek was outside ready to off himself. Good thing Jesse dropped by at that moment.
Gosh, the long lady haired girl playing Future Sydney (Haley Hudson) is gorgeous. I remember her on Weeds.
I hope we see Samantha Krutzfeldt back as Lauren. She was perfect as a mirror (character) image of young, innocent Sarah. Cyborgs killed her mom and now they threaten the baby she has to raise. I can easily see Lauren turning into a big time warrior just like Sarah. I admire Lauren's decision to leave before she got sucked into the Connor household. She's smart and she knows that Sarah attracts trouble. Anyone hanging around the Connors won't live long. Charley found that out the hard way and it cost him his wife.
In Honor of Derek and his Gun... Hum along Lyrics to the song 'Suicide is Painless' aka M*A*S*H Through early morning fog I see visions of the things to be the pains that are withheld for me I realize and I can see...
[REFRAIN]: that suicide is painless It brings on many changes and I can take or leave it if I please.
I try to find a way to make all our little joys relate without that ever-present hate but now I know that it's too late, and...
[REFRAIN] The game of life is hard to play I'm gonna lose it anyway The losing card I'll someday lay so this is all I have to say.
[REFRAIN] The only way to win is cheat And lay it down before I'm beat and to another give my seat for that's the only painless feat.
[REFRAIN] The sword of time will pierce our skins It doesn't hurt when it begins But as it works its way on in The pain grows stronger...watch it grin, but...
Seriously, TSCC should license this song and use short pieces of it in Future Scenes. It sums up their hopeless situation perfectly. That room full of dead civilians was grim. At least they could have Derek recite some of the lyrics next time he sees a massacre.
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Post by ga5speed02 on Dec 8, 2008 23:27:29 GMT -5
The dad and his financial connection to cybernetic research was a red herring. It was the mom the terminator was after. She was going to have a baby that would be born with an anti-body that the resistance could use to protect themselves against biological attacks from Skynet. So basically, the terminator was sent there to kill the mother to prevent the baby girl from being born. Sort of a T1 story — kill the mother to prevent the baby. - thats what i thought but wasnt sure. thanks for clearing that up Oh, and the part when Sarah looks out into the forest and the trees are moving, the girl asks her what they are doing and Sarah responds "Their hunting each other." I really liked that line for some odd reason. It just sounded really awesome i thought that part was awesome too
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